Diesel inventories, days of supply and our methods.
Research assessed . This authored edition stays fixed. The automatic source monitor below checks later releases.
About Fuel Horizon and this research
Published by Fuel Horizon, an independent research project. This site uses AI-assisted research, software-based calculations and automated collection of public records. It is not an official forecast, a tank inspection service or a report of conditions at every fuel station. No professional credential or affiliation with a reporting agency is implied.
We distinguish three things: what a publisher reported, what follows from a stated calculation, and what depends on an assumption. Original links, observation dates and material limitations stay with the figures. Accepted source changes are archived; new values do not silently revise the fixed research edition. A successful calculation test verifies arithmetic, not predictive accuracy. Advertising is kept separate from evidence selection.
Diesel days of supply is not days until fuel runs out
In its weekly distillate report, EIA defines days of supply as U.S. total distillate stocks divided by the four-week average U.S. distillate demand measure. For illustration only, 100 million barrels divided by 4 million barrels per day equals 25 days of coverage. That calculation does not assume refinery production and imports actually stop.
The Crisis Clock uses a different numerator and denominator: stock above a selected historical benchmark divided by the recent net stock draw. Total-distillate coverage must not be relabeled as a countdown for low-sulfur diesel or pump availability. EIA's total-distillate days-of-supply series has its own product definition.
Fuel Horizon separates reported observations, arithmetic implications and working assumptions. We link to primary records and retain their dates. We have not identified a defensible worldwide diesel run-out date or calibrated shortage probability.
What counts as diesel inventory?
A source’s product definition controls the comparison. The U.S. EIA 0–15 ppm sulfur distillate series includes diesel and heating-fuel uses. Australia’s eligible Minimum Stockholding Obligation (MSO) stocks include some crude or unfinished-product equivalents and fuel in defined waters. Neither measure is identical to finished diesel immediately available at every pump.
Country, company and territorial samples are kept separate. Production, imports and throughput are flows; inventories are stocks. Days of cover use a stated consumption denominator and are not automatically days until deliveries fail.
U.S. diesel inventories: two observations, one conditional path
U.S. reported low-sulfur distillate stocks were 96.408 million barrels on 4 September and 93.734 million on 2 October 2026. The 2.674-million-barrel change over 28 days gives an average net draw of 95,500 barrels/day. The chart connects these two observations; it is not a complete weekly time series.
The 91.239-million-barrel comparator is the EIA-observed 22 May 2026 low in the post-2015 comparison window. Holding that draw constant from 2 October reaches the comparator around 28 October. Stocks recovered after the May low; the comparator is not a measured operating floor.
A retrospective replay of analogous stock events across 438 historical origins issued 50 warnings: 20 matched subsequent stock events, 30 were false, and 13 events were missed. The observations overlap and use revised history. These results are not prospective calibration and must not be read as a 40% current crisis probability.
Global supply: selected reserve-tranche coverage
The global illustration selects a 200-million-barrel tranche from the IEA’s 7 October 2026 statement reporting over 200 million barrels of public emergency diesel. It assumes the entire selected tranche is releasable and delivered on time, and an assumed sustained deficit of approximately 1.4774 million barrels/day. That arithmetic gives about 135 days of coverage from the statement date, around 19–20 February 2027.
The assumed rate extends July data from 28 JODI country accounts plus U.S. data, assumes world demand of 30 million barrels/day and equal draw intensity in missing countries, and carries the rate into October. This is not an observed current global deficit. Product coverage, source quality flags, missing countries and actual dispatchability remain unresolved. The selected tranche is not total world reserves.
Australia: a regulatory comparison
Eligible automotive-diesel stocks of 2,871 million litres on 6 October 2026 were 609 ML above the reduced 2,262 ML comparator. A 137 ML decline over seven days equals 19.571 ML/day. Keeping that rate constant gives about 31 days from the observation, around 6 November. The temporary reduction ends on 31 January 2027.
A saved historical comparison over 114 targets found mean absolute error of 176.06 ML for the latest-draw rule versus 112.96 ML for no change. The extrapolation did not demonstrate an advantage over that simple baseline.
How the scenario calculator works
For positive net draw, days to the selected benchmark equals (starting stock minus benchmark) divided by net draw per day. All inputs must use compatible volume units. A flat or rebuilding path has no future draw-based crossing. Half-rate and double-rate choices show sensitivity, not confidence intervals.
Original observation anchors stay fixed. Remaining days change with the calendar, without resetting the scenario. When a scenario date passes, the page says reassessment is needed; passage of time does not confirm the event occurred.
Automatic source updates and preserved editions
The hosted service checks seven primary feeds every six hours, independently of any reader’s computer. Each accepted change is saved with its retrieval time, source hash, observation dates and derived comparisons on persistent storage. Invalid, implausible or regressed records are rejected; the last good reading and failure notice remain available. Unchanged releases keep their original observation dates.
Weekly observations are flagged after 16 days, France snapshots after two days, and lagged JODI monthly reports after 100 days. A source check is overdue after two missed cycles. U.S. low-stock and Australian regulatory comparisons recompute from new matching observations; a flat or building path gives no future draw-based crossing. These arithmetic comparisons are not validated predictions. The selected global reserve rate and authored PDF are fixed assumptions and are not silently rewritten as current measurements. Narrative conclusions and policy changes require a new reviewed edition.
Public observations retain their geography and as-of dates. We do not refresh a research date merely because someone visits the page. New evidence should trigger a documented revision while preserving the earlier forecast vintage for later comparison. The homepage’s change log describes this edition.
Checked automatically every 6 hours. All connected sources passed their last check.
These observations and the supported comparisons below refresh from original publishers. A successful check can return the same release. Our authored research and reserve illustration remain the fixed 10 October edition.
Source checked
United States inventories
93.734million barrels
Observation: 2 Oct 2026 · Released 7 Oct 2026
U.S. low-stock warning comparison
≈ 18 days · around 28 Oct 2026
The fixed 91.239m-barrel May 2026 low is a warning comparator, not a physical crisis threshold. The date starts from the observation, never the time you visit.
U.S. 0–15 ppm distillate, including diesel and heating fuel. Reported total is not dispatchable stock.
The 2,262 ML reduced requirement expires 31 January 2027. It is not a delivery-failure threshold. The date starts from the observation, never the time you visit.
MSO automotive diesel includes eligible crude/unfinished equivalents, pipelines and fuel in defined waters. It is not all finished fuel on land.
615 temporary diesel declarations among 9679 eligible IDs; 87 began over 30 days ago. Counts are not a measured share of fuel demand.
Live administrative snapshot; station declarations may be old. Eligible station IDs are not all stations, demand-weighted volumes or a global probability.
Unique IDs with a diesel price or active temporary diesel declaration. Permanent outages and unknown offerings are excluded from the denominator. Declarations are not verified outages or unmet fuel volumes.
Monthly partial country reports with reporting lag. Native gas/diesel KBBL closing stocks and source assessment codes; not current global usable supply.
Reported native KBBL gas/diesel closing stocks only. Missing/suppressed values excluded. Assessment codes retained as source flags; countries and product coverage differ. No world total or deficit is inferred.